Is Bailey Falter the Guy to Depend on More Than Connor Brogden in the Bullpen?


In 3 games against the Dodgers, Giants, and Nationals, Bailey Falter has a 46% chance of throwing a good pitch in the right spot.

In 4 games against the Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, and Mets, Connor Brogden has a 32% chance of throwing a good pitch in the right spot.


Like last year, the 2021 Philadelphia Phillies have a bullpen problem. The Phillies simply can not throw a pitch in the right location. Some of the Phillies pitchers, including Connor Brogden, have lost leads and struggled to use more than one pitch to fool opponents. For the percentages, I estimated how many times Brogden and Falter located their pitches correctly in the zone and divided them by the total pitches thrown. Against the Giants, Nationals, and Mets, Brogden has struggled to consistently throw pitches in areas where batters miss. In the game against the Giants, Brogden was facing Wilmer Flores in the bottom of the eighth inning. In the first pitch of the at-bat, he chose to throw a fastball right down the middle. This was the wrong pitch at the wrong time because batters often take advantage of that location. In the game against the Nationals, Connor was behind with a 3-2 count against Gerardo Parra. The pitch was way outside. The pitcher in this case should be creative in the zone to try to trick the batter. The other problem Brogden had was the pitch itself. It looked like a slider that turned into a changeup. The result was a pitch that neither broke correctly or stayed anywhere near the zone. He has to know that if one pitch is not working, he needs to pick another that can beat batters. Right now, Brogden is not able to command his pitches well enough to be a dependable arm for the Phillies.

On the other hand, Bailey Falter seems like he could be the better option out of the bullpen. In three games, he has a 46% chance of throwing a good pitch in the right spot. In his debut against the Dodgers, Falter had a 2-2 count against Will Smith and threw a changeup on the outside corner of the plate. Smith got tricked and hit a ground ball in the infield for an easy out. Against the Giants, Falter was getting the best of Brandon Crawford and, with an 0-2 count, threw a nasty slider down in the dirt to make him chase. Back at home against the Nationals, Falter was behind 2-0 to Trea Turner and came back with an inside fastball. Bailey knew Turner would swing at a pitch near him and he was right. Turner hit a shallow flyout. In his third game against the Nats, some of the batters began to figure out some of his outside pitches. However, Falter made a simple adjustment to continue getting the best of opposing hitters: he decided to throw more pitches inside, keeping batters off-balance in the box. The Philadelphia Phillies should reconsider who they bring out of the bullpen because Bailey Falter is looking like the kind of guy who can get consistent outs out of the pen.



By Contributor Blogger,

Jacob Mauriello


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